A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. 0:00 0:00. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. And we just want that to continue. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Im looking at both sides of it. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Our roads need to be fixed. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. He says Democratic Gov. Your email address will not be published. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. We need creative leadership, Miller said. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. I think its very political right now, honestly. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. We were as far down to five cooks last year. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Theres significant variability among them, though. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. This includes personalizing content and advertising. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Your email address will not be published. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. He cares about the American people.. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Its just not that great, Paul said. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. I quit voting once out of the union.. What happened to our Democratic Party? Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . They need to take care of the older people here. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Theyre scared. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. SACRAMENTO . As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. I believe in a time cycle. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. You have to take the lesser of two evils. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. I dont listen to the news. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. Blaine County. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. This includes personalizing content and advertising. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Here's why. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. We believe that there are two main reasons. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. He pissed off a lot of people. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. I just want Trump in. Theres significant variability among them though. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes.